This article was published in Dawn News on November 29, 2025, at the following link
https://www.dawn.com/news/1958075/by-elections-2025
EVERY election, no matter how small and how flawed, carries a message about the political dynamics shaping up in society at the time — provided that the electoral process and election results both are observed and analysed with a keen eye.
The recent by-election in six national and seven Punjab assembly constituencies was no exception. These seats — with the exception of the National Assembly seat NA-129 in Lahore — had fallen vacant after the conviction, and subsequent de-seating (as per the law), of some PTI-supported legislators. The Lahore NA seat became vacant after the demise of Mian Azhar, a senior PTI leader.
The PTI had decided that since it did not consider the conviction and disqualification of its legislators legitimate, it would boycott the by-election except for the seat in Lahore which did not become vacant because of the incumbent’s disqualification.
NA-18 in Haripur was, unlike the other 12 constituencies located in Punjab, a part of KP and had fallen vacant after PTI MNA and Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Omar Ayub was convicted and subsequently disqualified. The election in the constituency was not boycotted either but it is not clear whether the party granted an exception to this constituency because it was located in KP and therefore felt more confident of winning this seat.
This constituency turned out to be the only one where a keen contest was observed and the 42 per cent voter turnout closely matched the 45pc in 2024. Although TV reports of partial constituency resuÂlts indicated a very close contest between the PTI and PML-N candidates who had been exchanging the first and second positions for quite some time, it was the PML-N candidate who eventually won — with a big margin of about 40,000 votes. The same candidate had lost to the PTI candidate by a margin of 80,000 votes in 2024.
Among the constituencies boycotted by the PTI, NA-185 in Dera Ghazi Khan was probably the only one where a lively contest was observed. Apparently, it was possible because two traditional rival tribes of the area — the Legharis and the Khosas — were facing off.
Mehmood Qadir Leghari, as an independent candidate, had secured over 49,000 votes and was runner-up to the PTI’s Zartaj Gul in 2024, but he almost doubled his tally to 93,000 as the PML-N’s candidate and won the by-election. The PPP’s Dost Muhammad Khosa, who had secured over 26,000 votes in 2024, also increased his votes to over 39,000 in the by-election as runner-up. As the voter turnout was about 33pc compared to about 50pc in 2024, it seemed that PTI voters had at least partially abstained in this contest.
In the remaining national and provincial assembly constituencies, PTI voters effectively boycotted the by-polls as voter turnout plummeted to an average 28pc in 13 constituencies, which is half of the 56pc turnout in 2024. PML-N candidates increased their polled votes in 13 constituencies from 698,459 or 27pc of the total votes polled to 957,945 or 64pc of the total votes polled — an increase of over 37pc.
Fortunately, the by-elections passed off without any incident of major violence but, as usual, there are charges of poll rigging by the unsuccessful candidates, mostly in NA-18 (Haripur), NA-129 (Lahore) and NA-185 (Dera Ghazi Khan).
The electoral process in Pakistan, sadly, doesn’t enjoy a great deal of public trust. It is, however, difficult to pass judgement on the fairness of the recent by-elections as no evidence about the alleged rigging has been made public. An analysis of the by-election results can, therefore, be undertaken based on the official results.
It is difficult to comment on the fairness or otherwise of the recent by-elections at this stage.
The most interesting contest took place in NA-129 Lahore, in the heart of Punjab, where decisive future electoral battles will be fought. It was surprising that a close contest was not witnessed in this constituency where only 19pc voters turned out compared to 54pc in 2024. It seems that PTI voters had decided on their own to boycott the by-election, despite the fact that a PTI-supported candidate was in the field.
The PML-N candidate won the election with a comfortable lead of about 34,000 votes by securing around 61pc of the total votes polled. The same PML-N candidate could secure only 34pc of the votes and was defeated by a margin of about 32,000 votes less than two years ago. There is ample room and need for analyses of this turnaround.
The key question remains why PTI voters did not come out to vote or why the party failed to mobilise them despite the fact that their candidate was in the run. Are voters disillusioned with Pakistan’s electoral system or the leadership of their party or both? Or are they in a neutral zone of transition before they switch to the other side as is a common phenomenon in such cases?
The answer to these questions may also explain whether public opinion in Punjab is undergoing a change.
Are the efforts of the federal and Punjab governments to project their performance through an onslaught of media publicity making the desired impact? Is it recovery from the brink of bankruptcy and relative economic stability? Is it overpowering India in the short May conflict? Is it successful diplomacy after the war, which led to US President Donald Trump praising the Pakistani civil-military leadership and Saudi Arabia signing a defence pact with Pakistan? Is it the almost-daily inauguration of projects and programmes in Punjab?
Or is it the PTI’s despondency that its leader may not come out of prison and the party may not come to power in the near future? Or is it a combination of some or all of these factors affecting voters’ mindset? Electoral results of a single constituency may not be sufficient to reach a definite conclusion and we may have to wait and observe some upcoming contests.
